How to Bet on Football

Worst Football Betting Markets

Clearly the bets with the higher theoretical profit margins are the ones to be avoided. However, these more exotic betting markets offer bigger payouts and the odds seem very attractive. They offer substantial returns for a modest outlay.

Season Accumulators

A popular bet at the start of each season is an accumulator on the winners on the four leagues in England, in addition to the Scottish leagues and European ones. Even the odds for singles seem attractive but when accumulated this bet can be hard to resist. Each-way terms mean that if four teams are placed the return is significant.

Match Accumulators

Bookmakers can offer their own accumulators for clients to place bets on. This could be for teams that all kick off at the same time, for example 3pm on a Saturday. However, one team not winning will mean your bet goes down.

First Goalscorer

This is a bet with a high profit margin and one that bookmakers love to take. There are so many different factors in determining the first goalscorer in a match. Obviously a team’s main striker will be the favourite but the number of set plays a team has in a game is a significant factor. Defenders are more likely to score from corners and free kicks than from open play. Then there are the players who are the regular penalty takers for their side.

Correct Score

This is another bet in which statistics and past scoring records are pretty much of little value when considering the correct score in a football match. It is difficult to predict if a team with a comfortable lead will push on to score more goals or drop their intensity enough to concede.

Scorecast

This bet is a combination of the first goalscorer and correct score bets. The Scorecast combines two difficult bets to get right which means the variables are compounded. Due to the related contingency elements of the bet it offers poor value despite the seemingly attractive odds.

Price Factors

Football coupons are printed up to five days before matches take place. This puts a bookmaker at a disadvantage if significant events occur in the days leading up to the match. Shop and internet prices can be adjusted if there are significant team developments. Certain teams play much weakened teams in the FA Cup, Europa League and EFL Cup.

It does seem to be the case that after a change of management a team plays above their general level in the next match. However, a manager is generally sacked after a poor run of performances and it might just take a slight improvement or increase in confidence to achieve a decent result.

Recent current form is still the most important factor in determining the outcome of a football march. A team's results over a spell of six games are weighted heavily when odds compilers set the odds. This means the outsiders chances may be underestimated as their form over a longer period of time is more relevant than the favourites’ results over the same span of matches.

In-Play Betting

This is still an ongoing massive growth area in online football betting. There appears to be no limit to what can be bet on during a match. The most bizarre must be whether the woodwork will be struck but just about every facet of a game can now be bet on during the match.

The emergence of Betfair has helped in the growth of this type of betting. The exchange model lends itself to in-running betting. Markets are suspended after significant events such as a goal, sending-off or penalty. Prices are updated and are available up to the very end of matches.

Match Statistics

There is now a huge amount of data available on the internet that can be used when betting on football. Games from the major leagues are comprehensively analysed and statistics are updated almost immediately after a match finishes. Statistics used most extensively are those referred to when betting on corners, goals and bookings.

• Corners -There are several key factors in determining the potential number of corners in a football match. It is possible to bet on bands of corners and over or under a certain number. The average number of corners in the English Premier League is just below eleven. High corner counts are associated with teams that attack with width. Defensive tactics influence the number of corners a team concedes. When teams chose to clear their lines percentage defending results in more corners being conceded. The size of the pitch and weather can also influence the corner count.

• Bookings - Towards the end of each football season there is an increase in the number of matches that don’t mean anything to either side. For example after March in England the Premier League brings together sides that cannot qualify for Europe or be relegated. Towards the end of the season the average number of bookings and red cards falls significantly.

• Goals - It is possible to determine the potential number of goals in a football match by adding the average number of goals scored by the home team in home matches in the current season to date to the same figure for the away team in away matches. Dividing the total of these two figures by two gives a combined average for any particular match.

Significant Scoring Trends

A couple of very good websites for scoring statistics are www.soccerbase.com and www.whoscored.com. There is a remarkable consistency over the number of goals scored across many countries and leagues. There are marginally fewer goals scored in internationals.

The most significant low scoring leagues are the main leagues in Switzerland, Russia and Singapore. The second level leagues in France and Italy have lower averages than the average across all matches.

The main leagues in England, Spain, Italy and Germany do not vary significantly from the average in terms of the number of goals scored in matches. The Scandinavian leagues produce significantly more than the average number of goals and the main leagues in Holland and Belgium are relatively high-scoring.