UFC 240 Betting Preview : Max Holloway has the Answer to Frankie Edgar

Last Updated : 23rd July, 2019 By Harvey T

VENUE

Rogers Place, Edmonton

TIME

Saturday 28 July

BROADCAST

Live on BT Sport

See Stats

The bookmakers can only see the main event of UFC 240 go one way, but can veteran Frankie Edgar upset the odds and dethrone featherweight king Max Holloway to take his belt away from Edmonton, Canada?

The champion is coming into this bout in a strange situation as he hasn’t lost at featherweight since 2013, but he is heading to Edmonton after a defeat. Blessed stepped up to lightweight to challenge for the vacant strap at 155lbs but was handily beaten by Dustin Poirier to send him back down to featherweight with his tail between his legs.

Poirier was just too big for Holloway in that scrap and there was little the Hawaiian could do to get into the fight. The relentless pressure and volume striking simply did not have the same impact against the 155lber that it has done against the rest of the 145lb division.

The champ is getting right back on the horse, though, as that unanimous decision loss came as recently as April, and he goes straight back into a title match before the end of July.

It really was a free shot for Holloway at a belt in another division, but we will have to wait and see if the loss has any impact on the 27-year-old. It shouldn’t, but the defeat snapped a 13-fight win streak for Blessed so losing is not something he is accustomed to. Will there be some reluctance to pull the trigger, as happened to Francis Ngannou? Or the start of an inconsistent patch after years of dominance, as happened to Jose Aldo?

The answers to those questions will come thanks to the fighting skills of Frankie Edgar, who seems a little bit fortunate to get a crack at the gold. The 37-year-old has been in line to fight Holloway twice in the past, with the fight falling out due to injury on both occasions. Most recently the two were supposed to meet in March last year, with Blessed dropping out and Brian Ortega coming in to face Edgar instead. The jiu-jitsu standout knocked Edgar out in the first round to jump the queue and get a shot at Holloway himself, losing heavily in December.

Since then, Edgar comfortably out-pointed Cub Swanson in April 2018 but has not fought since. With one win in the last two years, and a crushing knockout defeat in that time too, some have questioned Edgar’s validity as number one contender. However, as a former lightweight champion, legend of the sport and eight wins in his last 10, the dissenting voices are easily silenced.

Holloway is just 2/7 with Betfair to win this fight, which all but rules out Edgar’s chances, with the Answer available at 10/3 with Coral.

For a man who has done it all in MMA and beaten some of the greats of the game, this is a huge price, but it is easy to see why Holloway is such a firm favourite.

The champ has a giant height advantage over the challenger, standing 5’11” compared to the stocky Edgar who is 5’6”.  The veteran is used to dealing with a height disadvantage, so it won’t be bothering him, but it gives Holloway an even more significant edge in the stand-up, which he would possess regardless.

Holloway does take shots in his fights, and Edgar has put away people with his fists in the past, but it is very difficult to see the challenger winning this one on the feet, via knockout or by a decision. If the two men spend the majority of this fight on their feet, then the belt will be staying with the Blessed one.

Edgar’s only real hope of success and route to victory is to get Holloway on his back and wrestle him into oblivion, similar to how he handled rising Mexican star Yair Rodriguez at UFC 211 in 2017. Many expected the skilful striker and younger man to blast out Edgar on that night in Dallas, but Edgar took the younger, taller man down and beat him into submission. The wrestling and ground and pound of Edgar was so strong that the doctor was forced to call off the fight due to a nasty eye injury for the Mexican.

This is what the Answer will try and do to Holloway but that is extremely difficult. Yes, he will probably be the best wrestler that the champ has ever faced, but Holloway is so tough to take down and has a good ground game when he is there. Taking Blessed to the floor and holding him there for any amount of time is very tricky, doing it for the better part of five rounds is nearly impossible.

Edgar would need a near perfect performance and Holloway would have to be a bit off for the upset to happen here. There are just too many more ways for Holloway to get this win than his opponent. You can only really see a knockout out coming from one man, a submission from one man and a points win from out-striking from one man. Edgar has one shot, and it is a difficult one to land.

Holloway has scored a lot of stoppage wins and Edgar was knocked out last year, which is why the champ by stoppage is the shorted price outcome of this fight. However, Edgar is not usually so easily finished, and coming off the grinding defeat at lightweight, Holloway might not quite be at his very best in this one.

Expect Holloway to dominate the stand-up, spend a bit of time on the floor without taking too much punishment, and largely just dominate the fight at range. He will look for the finish, but the Answer will evade it over five tough rounds for both men.

Max Holloway to beat Frankie Edger by decision is available at 3/1 with Betfair