UFC 238 Betting Preview : The Messenger will deliver again

Last Updated : 3rd June, 2019 By Peter Roberts

VENUE

United Center,Chicago

TIME

Saturday 8 June

BROADCAST

Live on BT Sport

See Stats

The headline act of UFC 238 might not be the most highly-anticipated of the year, but Henry Cejudo vs Marlon Moraes for the vacant UFC bantamweight title is as well-matched and intriguing as any main event.

The odds prove exactly that with very little between the two fighters in the betting, but Cejudo going in as the marginal underdog against Moraes.

That is understandable given that this is a step up in weight class for the Messenger, while Magic is a natural bantamweight. Cejudo is still holding onto the UFC flyweight belt and will be giving up height and reach as he looks to become a two-belt champion.

Moraes is also on a hugely impressive run of results, dating all the way back to his World Series of Fighting days. After going 5-4-1 over his first 10 professional fights, the Brazilian has become one of the most improved fighters on the planet, going 17-1 since November 2011.

His only loss in the UFC came on debut in a split decision defeat to Raphael Assuncao, a loss he has since avenged with a first round submission victory, taking his record to where it stands now: 22-5-1.

He has serious power in his legs, be it knees or kicks, which Jimmie Rivera and Aljamain Sterling felt in recent fights, being sparked in the first round.

This is all sounding pretty good for Moraes, but he has a huge task on his hand with the flyweight champ. Cejudo has taken his career through the stratosphere in the last year, beating two of the all-time greats in Demetrious Johnson and TJ Dillashaw. He is no longer just a top-level wrestler, relying on those skills, he can do it all, as he showed by knocking out Dillashaw.

However, he will have to go back to his wrestling base in this fight, and it is this elite ability that gives him the edge over Moraes. The Brazilian’s striking and jiu-jitsu is better than his foe’s, and better than most fighters in the division, but Cejudo may be able to nullify it all with his wrestling talents.

The American has the bravado to try and trade with Moraes, but he should also have the intelligence to keep that to a minimum and take this to the floor as quickly and as often as possible. With a height and reach disadvantage, along with inferior striking, Cejudo will not last five rounds on the feet.

Knowing this will force him into employing a grappling strategy and he is as good as anyone in the sport in this realm. It might make for a dull fight, but the Messenger grinding out a points decision looks a great price at 13/5.

The co-main event sees Valentina Shevchenko defend her women’s flyweight title against Jessica Eye, and that is exactly what she’ll do. This one is almost not worth betting on, with a best price of just 1/10 on Shevchenko picking up the win – although throwing it into an accumulator might be as useful as it gets.

Shevchenko has a couple of losses in the UFC, but both have come to Amanda Nunes, the best female fighter on the planet and in a weight class above her best. Her last victory was a dominant one over Joanna Jędrzejczyk and she also has an impressive win over Holly Holm to her name.

She has only been down at flyweight for her last two bouts, but she already looks set to dominate the division for some time to come with her impeccable kickboxing and has shown an impressive ground game with two submission wins in her last four fights.

Eye is a good fighter on a decent three-fight win streak, although two of those have been split decisions and she came off four straight losses before that. She is extremely unlikely to knockout or submit the champ and going five rounds to victory is only marginally less likely.

The fight that could really headline any event, and which many fans will be looking forward to most, is the lightweight scrap between Tony Ferguson and Donald Cerrone, which is likely to act as a number one contender’s bout at 155lbs.

Two of the most exciting and well respected fighters on the entire roster, there is no chance this will be a boring fight and every chance one or both men will be pocketing bonus awards at the end of the evening in Chicago.

Ferguson is on an 11-fight winning streak dating back to 2012 that has seen him beat, and stop, the likes of Rafael dos Anjos, Kevin Lee, Edson Barboza and Anthony Pettis. Cowboy cannot boast such a streak, but since his return to lightweight he has looked superb, knocking out exciting prospect Alexander Hernandez before comfortably out-pointing Al Iaquinta.

Ferguson has had some personal issues that have kept him out of the cage since October, and these problems are why he is not a more significant favourite over Cerrone. El Cucuy is still odds-on to win the fight, but in truth, there are seemingly a lot more routes to victory for him than Cowboy.

In 27 professional fights, Ferguson has never been knocked out, and while Cerrone has match-winning power, especially in his feet, it is hard to see anyone knocking El Cucuy out.

While Cerrone is an excellent ground fighter, you would probably give Ferguson the edge there too, just. Cowboy’s ground game is underrated, but Ferguson’s is superb and can choke out any opponent in his weight class.

Ferguson also sets a frighteningly good pace and keeps it up for as long as he needs to. Over just three rounds he will not let up for a second. While Cowboy is no slouch, he is not as high-pressure as El Cucuy and it will make it hard for him to win a decision.