Europa League Final Betting Preview: Arsenal can stun distracted Chelsea : Sarri cannot compete with Emery at this level

Last Updated : 24th May, 2019 By Harvey T

VENUE

Arsenal are the underdogs against Chelsea, but look tremendous value to cause an upset in the Europa League final.

TIME

8pm, 29 May

BROADCAST

BT Sport 2

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As we prepare for the slap up meal of English teams dominating European competition, the first thing to look forward to is the starter – Chelsea taking on Arsenal in the Europa League final on Wednesday night.

Much has been discussed about this contest, but unfortunately the majority of that chat has come about the location of the contest – Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku.

An awful long way from an awful lot of Europe, and with political problems that mean Arsenal’s Armenian midfielder is not even travelling due to safety reasons, it is not the ideal setting for a major final.

It could also prove to be an embarrassing spectacle for UEFA with thousands of tickets returned by fans and sponsors and the very real prospect of the match being played in front of a half-empty stadium.

The game will go ahead, though, and we can only hope that UEFA learn from their mistakes, which they inevitably won’t.

Chelsea go into the contest as favourites to beat their London rivals, but there isn’t a great deal in the odds, meaning that picking a winner can prove to be a very profitable endeavour.

A draw is certainly not out of the question, with three of the last six meetings between the sides ending level. Only one of those six games have finished with more than one goal between the teams, but crucially that was the last one, which ended in a 2-0 win for Arsenal.

The Gunners comfortably beat the Blues thanks to first-half goals from Alexandre Lacazette and Laurent Koscielny in January at the Emirates to keep up a very decent recent record against Chelsea. Arsenal have lost just one of their last eight meetings with the men from Stamford Bridge, and that was a pretty unfortunate 3-2 defeat at the start of the season.

With this in mind, the underdogs start to look very tempting, and even more so when you consider who is in charge of each side. Arsenal have Unai Emery in charge, a man who has won this competition three times in the past with Sevilla and who has won the league title and multiple cup finals in France with Paris Saint-Germain.

Chelsea have Maurizio Sarri in the dugout who has never won anything, ever. Former Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger was famously described as a ‘specialist in failure’ by Jose Mourinho, but that label could easily be placed on Sarri. The 60-year-old has been in management for over two decades and has no silverware to his name, it is not a CV which inspires you to back his team in a big final.

Emery’s record in this competition is outrageously good and Arsenal’s impressive progress to the final has gone slightly under the radar. In the quarter-finals they beat Napoli home and away without conceding a goal. In the semis they beat Valencia home and away, scoring seven in the process. They have been superb in Europe and have not quite been given the credit.

Chelsea, in contrast, drew with Frankfurt home and away in the semis, scraping through on penalties.

The Blues are also having to deal with a number of outside distractions going into this one. There is huge uncertainty over the future of Sarri, with some reports suggesting he will be sacked regardless of the result in Baku.

There is little uncertainty over the future of their best player, Eden Hazard, who looks a certainty to leave for Real Madrid this summer, making this his last game for the club. However, what they will do to replace him is unknown as the club are under a transfer ban for the next two transfer windows.

Loan players Gonzalo Higuain and Mateo Kovacic are unsure over their futures, their two brightest young talents, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Callum Hudson-Odoi are out injured for the next few months. Their goalkeeper, Kepa, is being linked with a move away, as is key man N’Golo Kante.

Chelsea, in short, are a bit of a mess at the moment. Sarri is just about holding it all together, but barely.

Arsenal have their own problems – mainly their shoddy defence, but there seems to be far less uncertainty surrounding their camp. This will play  a big part in their success in the alien atmosphere of Baku.

Their top scorer also looks worthwhile getting on the scoresheet in Azerbaijan, with Pierre-Emerick  Aubameyang in fine form at the moment. The Gabon international has scored 31 goals in all competitions for Arsenal this season and seven in his last four matches.

His hat-trick away at Valencia was sublime, and he finished the Premier League campaign by scoring twice at Burnley. He is one of the finest attacking talents in global football and he can certainly make the difference for his side.

The 29-year-old is the favourite to score at any time during the contest, but still remains good value at 13/8 with Betfair to do so.

Another tasty bit of value appears to be in Arsenal to win and both teams to score. The Gunners possess some fearsome attacking talent, but also some comically bad defenders. While they are in good shape to win the match, it seems unlikely that they will keep a clean sheet, given that they haven’t managed to do so in their last seven matches in all competitions, including games against Burnley, Brighton and Crystal Palace.