2000 Guineas Preview : D-Day for Pinatubo
- VENUE
- Newmarket
- TIME
- 3.35 on Saturday 6 June
- BROADCAST
- Live on ITV1
It's taken us a while but finally the first Classic of the season is here. The flat racing season in England has been delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and only began on June 1. This preview looks ahead to the 2000 Guineas with the unbeaten Pinatubo the odds-on favourite to win. Can anyone beat him on Saturday?
Pinatubo the One to Beat
The 2000 Guineas is always a pointer towards who may go on to win the Epsom Derby. The odds-on favourite to win this race is the Charlie Appelby trained Pinatubo. He comes into this race having won all five of his races as a two-year-old. Ridden by William Buick in both of his last two races and this weekend, Pinatubo holds a good advantage over his rivals. He has won two Group 1 and one Group 2 races. Pinatubo has won at Newmarket, landing the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes beating Arizona by two lengths. That was his second win over Arizona, having beaten him by nine lengths in a Group 1 race at The Curragh. The Newmarket win was achieved on soft ground and at the end of a busy season. If he's come on well and can perform just as well, if not better as a three-year-old then it could be a massive year for the Charlie Appelby runner.
Kameko is the second favourite for the 200 Guineas. Trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by Oisin Murphy, Kameko has won two of his four races but could easily be unbeaten. Those two defeats were by a mose and a neck, so that's how closse Kameko is from having won four out of four. His best win was a Group 1 success at Newcastle. Again, there is something to find with the favourite for this race. Kameko has lost to Positive who has been beaten by Pinatubo. A good run is expected.
O'Brien chases a fourth win in a row
Aiden O'Brien has seen one of his runners win this race for the past three years. His best hope this time around is Arizona. However, he has a bit to find with the favourite for this race. Only two of his seven races have been won and he has twice lost to Pinatubo. The first time was that nine-length hammering on home turf in Ireland. He got a lot closer in the rematch at Newmarket but still lost by two lengths. Those two wins came in his first three races. Can a horse that hasn't won for four races and lost twice to the favourite win this? Probably not, but you never know with O'Brien.
This race will cause a shake-up in the market for the Derby and the current favourite is Military March. The Saeed Bin Suroor runner has only raced twice but both have been won. That includes a Group 3 win and it'll be interesting to see how the Hector Crouch ridden contender gets on here. He's expected to be able to get the mile and a half distance for the Derby but could be effective over this mile distance. Military March looks a good each-way bet.
Conclusion
It's great to see horse racing back again, even if it is behind closed doors. This race appears to be all about Pinatubo and he is our selection to finish first. Just how dominant a performance will determine if he is to become the Derby favourite. If you do want some value, then a bet on Military March to finiish in the top four is a good one to make.
Statistics
- Pinatubo has won all five of his races
- Aiden O'Brien has trained the winner of this race for the past three runnings and four of the last five.
- His main hope this year is Arizona but has only two wins in seven races but has twice been beaten by Pinatubo.
- At the time of writing, only three horses have single-figure odds.
- There has only been one odds-on winner of this race in the past ten years.
- Military March is unbeaten in two races, inlcuding a Group 3 win in his last race.